Strategies

Aug 31 2024

Guide to Baccarat Strategies

Written by Mila Roy

Baccarat strategies are different approaches to managing your bankroll while playing the game. These range from simple to more complex, with options available for every style of play.

Some of the most well-known baccarat strategies include those familiar from roulette, such as the Martingale strategy, Fibonacci strategy, and D’Alembert strategy. Additionally, baccarat has its own strategies that are suitable for both beginners and more advanced players.

This guide will explain how to use the most popular baccarat strategies. You’ll also learn about different side bets in baccarat that can add an extra layer of excitement to the game.

A Brief Overview of Baccarat Rules

Before diving into the strategies, let’s quickly review the rules of baccarat.

In baccarat, players bet on the outcome of the game. The bet is placed on one of the following options:

Player – Pays 1:1
Banker – Pays 1:1 with a 5% commission
Tie – Pays 9:1 or 8:1

After the bets are placed, the dealer deals two cards face up to both the player and the banker. The hand that gets closer to nine wins.

If the hand’s value goes over nine, only the last digit of the total is counted (e.g., 14 becomes 4).

The value of the cards is calculated as follows:

Card	Points
Ace (A)	1
King to 10 (K–10)	0
Nine to Two (9–2)	Face value

Baccarat Betting Systems for Beginners

Beginners should stick to simple and easy-to-use strategies. It’s important to avoid strategies that involve high risk and focus on those that help manage your bankroll effectively.

Additionally, it’s crucial to choose a strategy that fits your budget and helps you keep your bankroll in check. Finally, the strategy should align with your playing style and comfort level.

However, it’s important to recognize that even though a strategy can help you manage your bets and bankroll, the outcomes in baccarat are primarily based on chance. Baccarat is a game of luck, where the value and distribution of cards are entirely random.

Certain betting strategies can help you optimize your chances of winning in the short term, but in the long run, the game’s randomness and house edge will determine the outcome.

Below are some popular baccarat strategies suitable for beginners.

One-Sided Strategy

The One-Sided Strategy involves consistently betting on either the player or the banker throughout the entire session.

This strategy is based on the assumption that, over time, one of these options will win more often than the other. If the side you bet on wins, you continue betting the same way. If you lose, decide in advance whether you’ll continue with the same amount or adjust your bet.

This strategy reduces the need for decision-making and allows you to focus on the game, but it does not account for the game’s volatility or long losing streaks.

Flat Betting

Flat Betting is a straightforward strategy where you bet the same amount on every round, regardless of whether you win or lose.

Decide in advance the amount you will bet on each round. The goal is to stop once your winning streak puts you ahead.

This tactic limits losses but doesn’t maximize winnings during winning streaks. Implementing the strategy may require many rounds and, thus, longer sessions.

Chop

Chop is the opposite of Flat Betting. Instead of repeatedly betting on the same outcome, you alternate your bet based on the result of the previous round.

If the player wins, your next bet should be on the banker, and vice versa.

The strategy is based on the idea that outcomes will alternate frequently and long winning streaks are less common. Since Chop doesn’t focus on a single betting option, it can balance out wins and losses.

Trend Switch Combat

Trend Switch Combat is a strategy where you change your betting option after losing twice in a row. The goal is to take advantage of recurring winning or losing streaks, even at the risk that randomness might break the trend.

If you spot a trend, bet accordingly. For example, if the banker has won several times in a row, place your bet on the banker.

If the trend breaks and the other side starts winning, adjust your bet accordingly. For instance, if the player starts winning several times in a row, switch your bet to the player.

Baccarat Strategies for Advanced Players

Advanced players may prefer strategies that require a deeper understanding of the game’s mechanics and a larger bankroll. The effectiveness of these strategies may only become apparent over long-term play.

Advanced strategies require analysis of game trends and statistical probabilities. Additionally, the chosen strategy should be adaptable to the flow of the game and your own observations. A thorough understanding of different baccarat versions is therefore essential.

Analyze past games and learn what works best. By assessing your own risk tolerance, you can choose a strategy that matches it.

Here are two commonly used baccarat strategies for advanced players.

Oscar’s Grind

Oscar’s Grind is a baccarat strategy that offers a unique approach to gameplay, requiring you to view your betting session as a series of cycles. The goal is to achieve a profit of one unit per cycle. Once you reach this profit, the cycle ends. The key idea is to keep the bet the same after a loss and increase it by one unit after a winning round.

Here’s how the Oscar’s Grind strategy works:

Initial Bet: You place a bet of $3 and lose. The result is now -$3.
Second Bet: You bet another $3 and lose again. The result is now -$6.
Third Bet: You bet another $3 and win. The result is now -$3.
Increasing the Bet: After the winning round, you increase your bet by one unit, making it $6.
Final Bet: You place a $6 bet and win. The result is now +$3. Your goal was to win $3, so the goal is achieved.
Reset: You start the betting cycle over with the original bet of $3.

Oscar’s Grind is a methodical strategy that allows you to manage losses while aiming for a steady profit. By only increasing your bet after a win, you control risk and potentially recover from a losing streak over multiple cycles.

Card Counting

Card counting is well-known in blackjack, and a similar strategy can be applied to baccarat, though it’s not as effective. Why? In baccarat, card counting involves tracking the cards and assigning a mathematical value to each one to estimate the likelihood of future cards. This strategy might give you a small advantage, but it requires meticulous record-keeping.

The player has little influence over the course of the game. For example, they cannot refuse a third card if the rules require one to be drawn. Also, no single card offers a significant advantage to the player.

In baccarat, card counting starts at zero, and you add or subtract numbers based on the cards that appear:

Table Cards	Point Calculation
A, 2, 3	+1
4	+2
5, 7, 8	-1
6	-2
9 to K	0

Additionally, you need to divide the total by the number of decks still in play. For example, if your count is 30 but there are six decks remaining, the actual count is five.

If your count is below 15, bet on the banker. If it’s 16 or higher, bet on the player.

Roulette Strategies Adapted for Baccarat

Many roulette strategies, like Martingale and Fibonacci, can also be used in baccarat. You can use the same strategies for both games or even for both at the same time!

Martingale

The idea behind the Martingale strategy is that you double your bet after every loss until you win. After a winning round, you return to your original bet.

This is considered a negative progression strategy based on the theory that you will eventually win more than you have lost.

Here’s how Martingale works in practice:

You start with a bet of five dollars and lose.
You then bet ten dollars and lose again.
Next, you bet twenty dollars and lose.
On a bet of forty dollars, you win, ending up five dollars ahead (40-35).
You return to your five-dollar bet, and the cycle continues.

D’Alembert

D’Alembert works similarly to Martingale in that you increase your bet after a loss and decrease it after a win.

However, instead of doubling the bet, you increase it by just one unit. After a winning round, you reduce the bet by one unit.

Here’s how to use the D’Alembert strategy in baccarat:

You start with a bet of two dollars and lose.
You then bet four dollars and lose again.
Next, you bet six dollars and lose.
You then bet eight dollars, and this time you win. For your next bet, reduce the amount by one unit, which in this case is two dollars. Your next bet will be six dollars.

Fibonacci

The Fibonacci baccarat strategy is based on the famous Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. It begins like this: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, and so on.

The idea is simple: you start betting according to this sequence when you lose.

You continue following the sequence until you win, and then you drop back two steps or return to the beginning if you’re early in the sequence and can’t move back two steps.

Here’s a practical example of the Fibonacci strategy:

You bet one dollar and lose.
You bet one dollar again and lose.
Now, you bet two dollars and win.
You then return to betting one dollar.

Labouchère

The Labouchère strategy starts with choosing the amount you aim to win by the end of your playing session. You then break that amount into smaller parts to create a sequence. Your bet is determined by adding the numbers from the left and right ends of the sequence.

For example, if you want to win ten dollars, you might create a sequence like this: 1-2-1-2-1-1-2. In this case, your initial bet would be three dollars (1+2).

If:

You win: Cross off the numbers and move on to the next pair. In this case, the next bet would also be three dollars (2+1).
You lose: Add the amount of your bet to the right end of the sequence. Your next bet would be four dollars (1+3).

The session ends when the sequence is complete. By this point, you should have won the amount you initially set out to win.

1-3-2-6

In the 1-3-2-6 strategy, your betting cycle follows the numbers 1, 3, 2, and 6. If you lose, you start the cycle over, but if you win four rounds in a row, you gain a profit of 12 units.

Here’s how baccarat works with the 1-3-2-6 strategy:

Your first bet is two dollars. If you lose the first round, you’re down two dollars. If you win, you’re up two dollars. You then move to the second bet, which is three times your base unit, or six dollars.
If you lose the second round, you’re down four dollars (2-6 = -4). If you win, you’re up eight dollars (2+6). You then move to the third bet, which is two times your base unit, or four dollars.
If you lose the third round, you’re still up four dollars (2+6-4 = 4). If you win, you’re up 12 dollars (2+6+4). You then move to the fourth bet, which is six times your base unit, or 12 dollars.
If you lose the fourth round, you break even (2+6+4-12 = 0). If you win, you’re up 24 dollars (2+6+4+12).

Comparing the Best Baccarat Strategies

Winning baccarat strategies can vary widely. Comparing them can help you find the one that best suits your playing style, preferences, and budget. Below are the strengths and weaknesses of different strategies, helping you decide which one to try next.

Strategy	Description	Pros	Cons
One-Sided Strategy	Consistently betting on either the player or the banker.	Simple and easy to follow.	Does not account for game variation.
Flat Betting	Betting the same amount each round, regardless of wins or losses.	Very low risk.	Wins are slower.
Chop	Alternating bets between player and banker.	Balances risks.	Does not capitalize on long winning streaks.
Trend Switch Combat	Following trends (winning or losing streaks) and switching strategies based on them.	Takes advantage of emerging trends.	Requires quick reactions and careful monitoring.
Oscar’s Grind	Increasing the bet by one unit after a win and maintaining it after a loss until the original bet is won back.	Reduces risk during extended losing streaks.	Not well-suited for fast-paced games.
Martingale	Doubling the bet after each loss until a win is achieved.	Easy to understand and implement.	Requires a large bankroll.
D’Alembert	Increasing the bet by one unit after a loss and decreasing it by one unit after a win.	Easy to follow and manage.	Long-losing streaks can lead to significant losses.
Fibonacci	Betting according to the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, etc.) after a loss.	Can be used with a smaller bankroll.	Winnings do not quickly cover losses.
Labouchère	Betting according to a sequence where losses are added to the end and wins remove two numbers.	Can be tailored to personal goals.	Complex and requires careful record-keeping.

Side Bets as a Baccarat Strategy

Side bets in baccarat are optional betting opportunities available in different versions of the game. While they can add extra excitement, they can also serve a strategic purpose.

Placing multiple bets in a single round helps spread the risk. At the same time, side bets come with high payout odds, meaning the potential winnings from these bets are greater than those from the main game.

The most common baccarat side bets include:

Banker Pair: The banker’s first two cards form a pair of the same value and suit. Pays 11:1.
Player Pair: The player’s first two cards form a pair of the same value and suit. Pays 11:1.
Perfect Pair: Either the player’s or the banker’s first two cards form a pair of the same value and suit. Pays 25:1.
Either Pair: A bet that either the player’s or the banker’s first two cards form a pair. Pays 5:1.
All Red / All Black: A bet that all dealt cards are either red or black. Pays 22:1 for red and 24:1 for black.
Big / Small: A bet on whether the total number of cards dealt is either four (small) or five to six (big). Pays 3:2 for small and 2:1 for big.

Note that not all side bets are available in every version of baccarat, and the house edge and risk level increase with side bets.

In the short term, baccarat side bets can add excitement and offer higher payouts than regular bets, but over time, it becomes challenging to stay ahead.

For example, a player places a bet on the banker to win alongside a Player Pair side bet. Both bets are lost, as the player’s hand is stronger, and no pair is dealt.

Probabilities and Payouts

Baccarat is a favourable table game in terms of house edge, meaning the player has good odds of beating the house and winning bets.

In an eight-deck baccarat game, the house edge varies depending on the betting option:

Banker: 1.06%
Player: 1.24%
Tie: 14.36%

If your bet is correct, baccarat payouts work as follows:

Player: Bet $20 → Receive $40 (profit of $20).
Banker: Bet $20 → Receive $39 (profit of $19, as a 5% commission reduces the original winnings by one euro).
Tie: Bet $20 → Receive $180 (profit of $160).

If the round results in a tie, but no bet was placed on it, both player and banker bets can either be returned or carried over to the next round.

Strategy for Leveraging the House Edge

The most effective baccarat strategy is to bet on the banker, as the banker’s winning probability is 45.86%. The return rate on this bet is approximately 98.94%.

The player’s winning probability is 44.62%, with a long-term return rate of around 98.76%. Although the percentages are close, the odds slightly favor the banker, making it the more frequent winner.

This advantage is reflected in the payout structure. If you bet on the player, your winnings are paid at 1:1. However, if you bet on the banker, your winnings are also paid at 1:1, but with a 5% commission. In practice, your winnings are paid at a ratio of 0.95:1.

A tie bet pays out at either 9:1 or 8:1 because the chances of winning this bet are the lowest. The probability of a tie is 9.52%, with a statistical return rate of just 85.64%. It’s a tough outcome to achieve, and the risk is high.

Can Baccarat Strategies Be Used in Live Casinos?

Yes, they can, since the gameplay remains the same whether the cards are dealt by a computer or a live dealer. From the options we’ve discussed, you can choose the betting strategy that best suits your level.

However, there is one exception. Card counting, a technique in baccarat, cannot be used against a computer. When the cards are shuffled after every hand, counting becomes impossible.

Even at live casinos, most baccarat tables shuffle the cards and refill the shoe once 50% of the cards have been used. Therefore, we do not recommend using card counting in live baccarat.

Bonuses and Betting Strategies

Although many bonus terms prohibit bonus abuse, there are still some strategies you can use when playing with casino bonuses.

Taking advantage of bonuses gives you more playtime and opportunities to try different strategies in baccarat. You might even get to play for free or receive extra money on your deposit. Cashback bonuses are particularly helpful, as they provide a return on losses, encouraging you to keep playing.

It’s important to note, however, that bonuses don’t necessarily increase your chances of cashing out winnings. You must also consider wagering requirements, which determine how many times you need to bet before you can withdraw winnings.

Strategies to Avoid in Baccarat

Remember, no baccarat strategy is mandatory—you can play entirely at random and still end up winning or losing.

You should not choose a baccarat strategy based solely on its name or reputation. Progressive betting systems can lead to significant losses in a short time, and the high house edge makes certain bets less profitable.

Additionally, overly complex betting strategies can reduce your enjoyment of the game and make it stressful. While baccarat has a high return rate and a low house edge, the house will still come out ahead in the long run.

Avoid using a baccarat strategy if:

Your bankroll cannot support multiple betting rounds: Managing your bankroll is crucial, especially with progressive strategies like Martingale.
You are not prepared for the risk: If you are unwilling or unable to endure losses, these strategies may be too risky for you.
You do not understand the strategy’s principles: Before using a strategy, ensure you fully understand it and know how to apply it correctly.
You rely too much on your own skills: Remember, baccarat is largely a game of luck, and no strategy can guarantee a win.

Winning Baccarat Strategies at Online Casinos

The best way to enjoy baccarat is to choose a strategy that is simple and fits your bankroll and risk tolerance. There are plenty of options to choose from.

Our tips for playing baccarat at online casinos are:

Set a budget for your baccarat play.
Choose a version of baccarat that matches your skill level.
Try out strategies one at a time.

Author

Mila Roy Content Strategist

Mila Roy is a seasoned Content Strategist at Gamblizard Canada with 8+ years of experience in gambling. Mila has specialized in content strategy creating, crafting detailed analytical guides and professional reviews.