Oopssss

No results

The Mathematics Behind Major Wins

Mila Roy
Written by Mila Roy

From steady roulette bets to multi-million-dollar jackpots, every win in a casino is shaped by mathematics. Understanding payout rates, odds, volatility, and jackpot funding can help players choose games that match their goals — whether it’s consistent returns or chasing a life-changing prize.

jackpot

RTP and House Edge: The Core Numbers

Return to Player (RTP) is the percentage of all wagers a game is designed to pay back to players over time. The house edge is the casino’s built-in advantage, calculated as:

House Edge = 100% – RTP

Example: If a game has a 97% RTP, the house edge is 3%. In the long run, for every C$100 wagered, the game will return C$97 to players and C$3 to the casino. Actual results can vary in the short term due to luck.

If you’re new to these concepts, our guide to understanding RTP in slots and casino games breaks them down in more detail, including how to use RTP to make informed game choices.

Bets, Winnings, and Payouts

Casinos balance their payouts with the money coming in from bets. If five players wager C$10 each, the total pool is C$50. With a 96% RTP, C$48 will be paid back over time, while C$2 remains as the house profit.

Lottery-style games often have much lower payout rates — sometimes around 50% — making them less favourable for regular play.

Variance and Volatility

Two games can have the same RTP but feel completely different to play. That’s because of volatility:

  • Low volatility: Frequent small wins, fewer swings in your bankroll.
  • High volatility: Fewer wins but higher potential payouts.

If you prefer steady play, choose low-volatility games like baccarat or blackjack. If you enjoy the possibility of big payouts, high-volatility slots or jackpots might be appealing — but expect longer losing streaks.

Expected Value (EV)

Expected value shows your average long-term return based on a game’s RTP. The formula is:

EV = Total Bet × (RTP ÷ 100)

Example: A C$100 total wager on a game with 96% RTP has an EV of C$96. In the long run, you can expect to get back C$96, but in any single session you could win much more or lose it all.

Smaller Wins Mean Higher Payout Rates

Games with frequent small wins usually return more of your wagers overall. For example:

  • Roulette: Even-money bets like red/black have a 48.6% win chance and a long-term return of 97.30%.
  • Baccarat: Betting on the bank offers a return of 98.94%.
  • Blackjack: With optimal strategy, payout rates can exceed 99%.

These games won’t make you rich quickly, but they give you more playing time for your budget.

Probability of Major Wins

Jackpots and other top prizes have very low hit probabilities — often 1 in several million spins. While the exact odds aren’t always published, the low frequency is what allows such large prizes to build up without bankrupting the casino.

Never plan your budget around “hitting the big one” — the odds are designed to keep it rare.

Jackpot Games and RTP

In progressive jackpots, a portion of each bet goes toward the prize pool. For example, with a C$10 bet, between 10¢ and 50¢ might be diverted to the jackpot. In Mega Fortune, 5.39% of each bet funds the top prize.

This means the base game RTP is lower until the jackpot is won. The prize builds over time, but only one player will eventually collect it.

Play jackpot games if your main goal is the jackpot. If you want regular returns, stick to non-jackpot titles with higher base game RTP.

The Larger Winnings – Lower Payouts Principle

The bigger the top prize, the more the average payout rate drops. A slot with a maximum prize of C$1 million will generally have a lower RTP than a slot with a C$10,000 top prize. This is simply the math of balancing the game’s prize structure.

Practical Advice

  • Know the RTP and volatility before playing.
  • Use low-volatility games to stretch your bankroll.
  • Mix a few high-volatility jackpot spins into your session if you want a chance at a major prize.
  • If you are considering strategies that rely on chasing promotions, explore bonus hunting and understand its potential pitfalls before trying them.
  • Set win and loss limits — the math works over time, but your results will still vary per session.

Charlon MuscatCharlon MuscatCasino Fact Checker

Author
Mila Roy
Mila Roy Content Strategist

Mila Roy is a seasoned Content Strategist at Gamblizard Canada with 8+ years of experience in gambling. Mila has specialized in content strategy creating, crafting detailed analytical guides and professional reviews.

Related articles
are new online casinos safe
6 min read
Can You Really Trust a New Online Casino?

For many players, a brand-new online casino can feel attractive. Fresh design, large welcome packages, and modern game collections are all part of the appeal. But the real question is simple: are these new casinos actually safe? The answer is not the same for every site. Some new casinos are…

Mila Roy, September 29 2025
vip live casino
5 min read
What Does VIP Live Casino Mean?

If you’ve browsed the live dealer section of an online casino, you’ve probably noticed tables labelled VIP Blackjack or Roulette VIP. Many players assume “VIP” means loyalty rewards or exclusive membership. In practice, it usually signals higher betting limits, a more polished studio, or special table setups. Only in rare…

Mila Roy, September 29 2025
how vr is used in gambling
7 min read
How Virtual Reality is Changing Online Gambling

Virtual Reality (VR) is no longer just a concept from science fiction — it’s becoming an accessible technology that could reshape how Canadians play online casino games. In this guide, we’ll cover what VR is, how it’s already being tested in online gambling, and what the future may look like…

Mila Roy, September 28 2025
difference demo games and free spins preview
Free Spins vs Demo Play – What’s the Difference and When to Use Each?

Online casinos in Canada often promote “free play” in different forms. Some give you free spins as part of a bonus, while others let you use a demo mode to test games. At first glance, they sound similar, but they serve very different purposes. Knowing when to use each can…

Mila Roy, September 28 2025
problems with withdrawals
9 min read
Common Problems with Online Casino Withdrawals

Withdrawing funds from an online casino should be simple, but many players run into unexpected problems. At Gamblizard, we regularly hear from our readers about these challenges. Below, we explain the most frequent issues and share practical solutions so you can receive your winnings without unnecessary delays.

Mila Roy, September 27 2025
slot machines with bonus purchases
12 min read
Slots with Bonus Buy

Bonus buy slots let you skip waiting for scatter symbols and pay directly to trigger free spins or other special rounds. For Canadian players, they can feel like a shortcut to the action — but they come at a high cost and carry extra risks. Before you play, it’s important…

Mila Roy, September 25 2025
Customer Support Outsourcing Companies for iGaming
Best Customer Support Outsourcing Companies for iGaming

Our experts at Gamblizard understand that the user experience is a key aspect of iGaming success in 2025. Our goal was to provide a list of the top companies that provide reliable customer outsourcing services in the iGaming industry. The rapid expansion of online casino sites and bookmakers drives this…

Jamie Wall, September 10 2025

🎁 Spin the Wheel to Get Unique Bonuses!

wheel
Outline